Switzerland is third in the group with 6 points … tied with Slovenia (second) and Lithuania (fourth) … way behind England. Hosts started the qualifiers poorly with two losses (England, Slovenia), but recovered with 2 big wins over San Marino and Lithuania, 8-0 aggregate. Switzerland will fight for direct qualification with Slovenia who plays San Marino this weekend, so a win today is mandatory for the Swiss. All the top players are valid today for Switzerland, so of course that is very good news for the manager.
Estonia is on the 5th place with 4 points … their results are not bad at all in this group. Estonia’s defense was very good as they did not allow more than 1 goal in any game … they beat Slovenia 1-0, lost only 0-1 with England, also beat Norway 1-0 in a friendly. On the other hand they lost 1-0 with Lithuania and drew 0-0 with San Marino … at home! The last match for Estonia was a nightmarish friendly in Qatar, which resulted in a humiliating 0-3 loss.
Switzerland destroyed inferior opposition in this group, both times 4-0 and they are on a good run after losing the first two games. Hosts are known as a trustworthy team who does not make unpleasant surprises too often and I can see them getting a very comfortable win over Estonia. Visitors do not look like a threat to score and for sure a motivated Switzerland team can put at least two past them. I think they could go on to win with a similar score like they did vs. Lithuania and San Marino.
It is true that Estonia was very good in this group defensively, but they do not have quality and that will not last forever. Chances are the first really bad result will come today and the odds are excellent. My tip will be Estonia to win and cover the -2 asian handicap. Correct score prediction: Slovenia – Estonia 3-0.
Pick: Switzerland (-2 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.25
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